Your total tax, everything you paid in, and the difference — laid out the way Form 1040 lays it out, so you can see which part of a refund is a credit and which part is just your own money coming back.
Quick answer
This works out your 2026 total tax on Form 1040 line 24 — income tax after credits plus self-employment tax, the Additional Medicare Tax and the Net Investment Income Tax — then sets it against your withholding, estimated payments and refundable credits. The refund or balance due is the difference, and each side is shown separately rather than collapsed into one figure.
What this includes
Total tax on Form 1040 line 24, including self-employment tax
Nonrefundable credits kept apart from refundable ones, and applied in the order Form 1040 applies them
The Child Tax Credit, the refundable Additional Child Tax Credit and the Credit for Other Dependents
The 2026 Child and Dependent Care Credit at the OBBBA rate, including the dependent-care FSA offset
The Earned Income Credit, computed on the § 32 curve rather than flagged
Withholding, estimated payments and a prior-year overpayment carried forward
How much of your refund is over-withholding and how much is refundable credit
What it excludes
State and local income tax refunds, which settle on their own return
The Alternative Minimum Tax, and the premium tax credit reconciliation on Form 8962
Education, saver's and energy credits, unless you enter them as other credits
Refund timing, offsets for past-due debts, and anything the IRS adjusts after you file
The 2026 rule most people get wrong: A larger refund is not a smaller tax bill. Withholding changes when you hand the money over, never how much you owe — the scenario table on this page shows the same household's total tax staying at the same figure across five very different refunds.
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Income
$
Box 1, both spouses on a joint return
$
Schedule C, after expenses
$
$
$
$
Retirement distributions, rental income
Adjustments
$
Traditional, pre-tax
$
$
Deductions
Dependents and credits
Under 13, or disabled
$
So you could work or look for work
$
Reduces the credit's expense limit dollar for dollar
$
Education, saver's, energy
What you have paid in
$
W-2 box 2 plus any 1099 or pension withholding
$
Quarterly 1040-ES payments
$
Refund you rolled forward from last year
Expected refund
$330
$330 of that is your own money coming back — you paid in more than you owed.
1 · Your total tax for the year
Adjusted gross income$75,000
Standard deduction− $16,100
Taxable income$58,900
Tax from the rate schedules$7,670
Nonrefundable credits—
Can reduce tax to zero, never below it
Income tax after credits$7,670
Total tax (Form 1040 line 24)$7,670
2 · What you paid in
Federal income tax withheld$8,000
Total payments and refundable credits$8,000
3 · The difference
Total payments$8,000
Total tax− $7,670
Refund$330
Effective rate on gross income10.2%
Total tax ÷ gross income
Marginal rate22%
The bracket your next dollar lands in
A refund is not a saving. The over-withheld part of this refund is your own money, returned without interest after up to sixteen months. Lowering your withholding moves it into your paychecks; it does not change the tax you owe by a cent.
The same return at five withholding levels
Married filing jointly, $120,000 of wages, two children under 17, standard deduction. Only the withholding changes between rows. Every figure is produced by the same function the calculator above uses.
Withheld during the year
Share of tax covered
Total tax
Refund
Balance due
$3,400
60%
$5,640
—
$2,240
$4,500
80%
$5,640
—
$1,140
$5,600
99%
$5,640
—
$40
$6,800
121%
$5,640
$1,160
—
$7,900
140%
$5,640
$2,260
—
The middle column never moves. $5,640 of tax is owed in every row — the family in the bottom row has not paid less tax than the family in the top row, they have simply lent the government $4,500 more during the year and are getting it back. That is the entire difference between a $2,240 bill and a $2,260 refund.
Worked examples
Every figure below is produced by the same calculation the estimator uses, at build time. Nothing here is typed by hand, so these examples cannot drift away from the tool.
Single, $75,000 of wages, $8,000 withheld, no children
The plain case: the refund is entirely money over-withheld.
Adjusted gross income
$75,000
Standard deduction
− $16,100
Taxable income
$58,900
Tax from the rate schedules
$7,670
Nonrefundable credits
—
Total tax (line 24)
$7,670
Withholding and payments
$8,000
Refundable credits
—
Refund
$330
The same filer with one child under 17
The $2,200 credit is absorbed by tax, so the refund rises by exactly $2,200 and nothing becomes refundable.
Adjusted gross income
$75,000
Standard deduction
− $16,100
Taxable income
$58,900
Tax from the rate schedules
$7,670
Nonrefundable credits
− $2,200
Total tax (line 24)
$5,470
Withholding and payments
$8,000
Refundable credits
—
Refund
$2,530
Married filing jointly, $90,000 of wages, two children, $6,000 of daycare
Shows the 2026 Child and Dependent Care Credit at the OBBBA rate, applied before the Child Tax Credit.
Adjusted gross income
$90,000
Standard deduction
− $32,200
Taxable income
$57,800
Tax from the rate schedules
$6,440
Nonrefundable credits
− $6,440
Total tax (line 24)
$0
Withholding and payments
$6,000
Refundable credits
$60
Refund
$6,060
Head of household, $28,000 of wages, two children, $600 withheld
Almost all of this refund is refundable credit, not over-withholding — the case where a big refund really is a transfer.
Adjusted gross income
$28,000
Standard deduction
− $24,150
Taxable income
$3,850
Tax from the rate schedules
$385
Nonrefundable credits
− $385
Total tax (line 24)
$0
Withholding and payments
$600
Refundable credits
$9,850
Refund
$10,450
Single contractor, $70,000 of Schedule C profit, nothing withheld
Self-employment tax is on the return. The old estimator could not express it and reported a refund here.
Adjusted gross income
$65,055
Standard deduction
− $16,100
Taxable income
$48,955
Tax from the rate schedules
$5,627
Nonrefundable credits
—
Self-employment tax
$9,891
Total tax (line 24)
$15,517
Withholding and payments
$0
Refundable credits
—
Balance due
$15,517
Why the refund and the tax are different questions
A refund is a settlement, not a result
Two numbers decide your April: what you owed, and what you had already handed over. The first is determined by the tax law and your year. The second is determined by a form you filed with your employer and by any payments you chose to make. They are almost independent, and the refund is only their difference.
This is why “how do I get a bigger refund” is usually the wrong question. Withholding more produces a bigger refund and costs you the use of your money all year. What actually reduces the first number is a deduction, a credit, or a change to the income itself — a 401(k) contribution, an HSA, a qualifying dependent, harvesting a loss.
There is one honest exception, and the panel above separates it out: a refundable credit pays out whether or not you owed anything. The Earned Income Credit and the Additional Child Tax Credit are transfers, not returns of your own money — for a low-income household most of the refund genuinely is new money.
Nonrefundable and refundable are not a technicality
A nonrefundable credit can reduce your tax to zero and no further. If your tax is $800 and you qualify for a $2,000 credit, $1,200 of it does nothing — some credits carry the unused part forward to a later year, and some, including the Child and Dependent Care Credit, simply lose it.
A refundable credit is paid out regardless. The Earned Income Credit is fully refundable. The Child Tax Credit is a hybrid: it is nonrefundable first, and only the part your tax could not absorb becomes the refundable Additional Child Tax Credit — capped at $1,700 per child and at 15% of earned income over $2,500.
That hybrid is the source of most confusion about the Child Tax Credit. Getting $0 of Additional Child Tax Credit does not mean you missed out: it means your tax was large enough to use the whole credit, which is the ordinary outcome for a middle-income family.
Frequently asked questions
Will I get a refund or owe taxes?
It depends on one comparison only: your total tax for the year against everything you paid in. Pay in more than the tax and the difference comes back; pay in less and you owe it. Nothing about your income level decides it — a filer earning $250,000 with generous withholding gets a refund, and one earning $40,000 with none owes.
Is a bigger refund a good thing?
No, and it is worth being blunt about it. A refund is not a saving or a reward — the over-withheld part of it is your own wages, returned without interest up to sixteen months after you earned them. Your tax for the year is identical whether you receive a $5,000 refund or write a $200 cheque. The one component that genuinely adds to your money is a refundable credit, which is why this page separates the two.
How much federal tax should have been withheld from my pay?
Broadly, enough that withholding for the year lands near your total tax. Your employer works it out from Publication 15-T using the W-4 you filed, and it comes out close for a single-job household taking the standard deduction. It goes wrong when there is a second income, a bonus withheld at the flat 22% supplemental rate, or self-employment income with no withholding at all. The W-4 optimizer runs the same calculation and shows the gap.
Does this include the Child Tax Credit?
Yes — $2,200 per qualifying child under 17 for 2026, with the phase-out above $200,000 of modified AGI ($400,000 on a joint return). The credit is applied against your tax first, and only what your tax could not absorb becomes the refundable Additional Child Tax Credit, capped at $1,700 per child and at 15% of earned income over $2,500. If your tax already uses the whole credit, the refundable part is zero, and that is the normal outcome for most middle-income families.
Why is my refund smaller than last year?
The usual causes are a raise pushing income into a higher bracket, a W-4 change that lowered withholding, a bonus withheld at the flat supplemental rate, a child turning 17 and dropping from the $2,200 credit to the $500 Credit for Other Dependents, or side income with no withholding. Enter both years and compare the total tax line rather than the refund line — that is where the real change shows.
Why does a contractor owe money when a salaried worker with the same income does not?
Self-employment tax. A Schedule C filer pays both halves of Social Security and Medicare — 15.3% on 92.35% of net profit — and it lands on the return as part of total tax, with nobody having withheld anything toward it. It is on Form 1040 line 24 alongside income tax, which is why $70,000 of net profit can produce a five-figure balance due while $70,000 of wages produces a refund.
When will the IRS send my refund?
Most electronically filed returns with direct deposit are paid within 21 days. There is one statutory exception: a return claiming the Earned Income Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit cannot be refunded before mid-February, whatever the rest of the return looks like. That is IRC § 6402(m) and applies to the entire refund, not just the credit portion.
How exact is this?
It runs the same federal engine as every other calculator on the site, so it handles the brackets, the capital-gain rates, self-employment tax, the Additional Medicare Tax and the Net Investment Income Tax properly. It does not include state tax, the Alternative Minimum Tax, education or energy credits beyond what you enter manually, or the premium tax credit reconciliation. Your filed return is the final word.
Owed money instead? Check whether a penalty applies — a balance due over $1,000 can carry one even if you pay in full by the deadline.
Educational estimate only. This is a 2026 federal estimate. It excludes state tax, the Alternative Minimum Tax, the premium tax credit reconciliation and less common credits, and it cannot know about anything the IRS adjusts after you file. Your filed return determines your actual refund. Full disclaimer.